Belize~ Will Guatemala invade if Belize says No to ICJ?

Posted: Saturday, September 1, 2018. 8:07 am CST.

The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and not necessarily those of Breaking Belize News.

This article was written by Richard Harrison, Belizean investor in production and services businesses in Belize. He holds a Master’s in Business Administration degree from Lancaster University.

By Richard Harrison:  One of the fear tactics being used by promoters of yes to ICJ vote, to scare voters into going along with the yes vote, is that our allies will abandon us, and that Guatemala will invade if we say NO to ICJ.

I do not believe that this is true, because:

1. Belize and Guatemala agreed, at the UN and OAS, to solve the dispute peacefully.

2. The GAF arrangement of its troops, equipment and infrastructure does not show, in military strategy, an orientation to invade Belize. They appear more in a counter-insurgency arrangement…whose principal terms of reference is to protect their generals, the economic elite, and government officials, and their families, whom are mostly far from the border with Belize.

3. Guatemala has many internal economic and political problems which an invasion could exacerbate to eruption, and which could bring down their fragile government rapidly. An invasion of Belize would require moving men and hardware towards Belize, which would leave many of the elite and government officials and their families vulnerable to some very angry, oppressed campesinos.

4. British and allied troops are in Belize…their governments would not have them here if they perceived they were at risk of death…and if they were not prepared to defend them. It does not matter that they are here in “training” capacity…the fact is they are here…and I believe as part of our Head of State government being responsible, while respecting our independence rights and responsibilities.

5. Armed conflict so close to the Mexican southeast, with many thousands of refugees arriving there, could force Mexico to act in its best interest. In 1976, when Guatemala was moving to invade…many thousands of Belizeans fled to Mexico. If half of our population or 200,000 fled to Mexico today, there will be repercussions.

6. The USA and UK do not go against each other, and Guatemala could end up like Iraq. Queen Elizabeth is still the Head of State of Belize. The USA has great relations with Guatemala…but if Guatemala were to invade the Commonwealth of Belize, guess whose side the USA will join? Belize needs to become a serious and responsible ally of the UK military-industrial complex, which is linked, with no dotted line, to that of the USA. We can choose that, or we can jump into the lap of Guatemala…Belize will have to pick…and saying yes to ICJ is another sign that the people of Belize are voluntarily leaning towards Guatemala.

7. Guatemala and Central America knows the historically valuable role that British presence in Belize has for regional stability and security. British presence in our region disciplines the adventures and crusades of other influential power brokers in the region…including some actors of the USA.

Therefore, the threat of invasion is only a fear tactic attempting to scare Belizeans into voting yes to ICJ…and this raises serious questions as to the motives of those pushing so hard to get the yes vote.

Even Assad Shoman’s book, which appears as the sales manual for “yes to the ICJ”, include a quote attributed to a diseased PUDP diplomat, threatening Belizeans that if they vote no to ICJ, that our allies will abandon us and leave us vulnerable to Guatemalan invasion.

I have been trained at masters level in marketing and sales by Lancaster University, AstraZeneca, Anheuser-Busch and Nestle…to market and sell successful, high-value products worldwide…not to sell stones.

In these times of rampant corruption, can Belizeans trust their political leaders with this very sensitive ICJ issue? especially with the looming dark clouds of economic implosion on the near horizon? Under a tired third-term government?

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