Atlantic hurricane season reaches peak; two disturbances being watched in far east

By Aaron Humes: As Belize and the northern triangle of Central America prepare for the impact of soon-to-be hurricane Nana, there are two more disturbances developing in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, continuing what has been a record-setting start according to WRDE-LP-TV of Maryland.

 

Forecasts are currently calling for the Atlantic hurricane season to continue to remain very active. Matthew Rosencrans, a meteorologist at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)’s Climate Prediction Center, said that we can expect for the remainder of the season, “The outlook is for 19-25 named storms, so that implies 6-12 more tropical storms or greater in strength still to come this year.”

 

Ahead of the usual September 10 peak, the Atlantic has seen the earliest forming C, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, & O named storms on record. There have been 15 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (Laura) as well as a storm that never made it past tropical depression strength. All four hurricanes that formed – Hanna, Isaias, Laura, and Marco – made landfall in the United States, but Marco only made landfall at tropical storm strength. In addition to these four hurricanes, three other storms have made landfall in the United States.

 

If we manage to see at least 22 named storms, we will run out of names on the Atlantic Hurricane Season list as Q, U, X, Y, and Z are not used for names. If we run out of names, then we will move to use the Greek Alphabet for names. This has only occurred one other time, in the historic hurricane season of 2005.

 

Closer to home, according to the Tampa Bay Times, the National Hurricane Center raised the chance of development for two tropical disturbances in the eastern Atlantic Ocean in its 5 p.m. advisory Wednesday, where it also downgraded Tropical Storm Omar to a tropical depression.

 

Nana continued to strengthen Wednesday afternoon and is expected to make landfall with Central America as a Category 1 hurricane on Thursday morning. Omar, which was hundreds of miles off the coast of Virginia, continued its eastern path into the open Atlantic while weakening, according to the hurricane center. Nana is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flash flooding to parts of Belize and Guatemala upon landfall.

 

Elsewhere in the tropics, the hurricane center said two other disturbances in the eastern Atlantic could become this year’s next named storms. Their projected paths, while preliminary, have them moving west toward the United States and the Caribbean.

 

Disturbance 1, which was midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of Africa on Wednesday, was given a 30 percent chance of formation over the next five days. Disturbance 2, directly off Africa’s coast, was given a 60 percent chance of formation in the same time frame. Disturbance 2 is developing near the Cape Verde Islands. This area is known for being a nursery for tropical systems that eventually become hurricanes, according to NOAA hurricane researcher Jason Dunion.

 

The hurricane center said Wednesday that it expects Disturbance 2 to strengthen into a tropical depression over the weekend while slowly moving westward, strengthening along the way.

 

If both disturbances were to develop, they’d be named Paulette and Rene.