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China to pass United States as world’s largest economy in coming decade

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Posted: Monday, December 28, 2020. 1:10 pm CST.

By Aaron Humes: The British-based Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) projects the People’s Republic of China to shake off COVID-19 and become the world’s largest economy by 2028 – five years earlier than forecast.

Southern neighbour India is on course to become third-largest at the turn of the coming decade, passing the United Kingdom, the BBC reports.

Despite being the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic, China has been commended for “swift and extremely strict action” to control the disease and avoid repeated lockdowns. It has avoided an economic recession and is forecast to see growth of 2 percent this year, as the U.S. took the brunt of the pandemic through fumbled efforts at federal and state level. 18.5 million cases have been confirmed as of today with 330 thousand deaths.

The CEBR says the pandemic has tipped the U.S.-China rivalry in the latter’s favour, with projected economic growth in the U.S. reaching just under 2 percent between 2022 and 2024 and slowing to 1.6 percent thereafter. The Chinese, boosted by aggressive policymaking targeting industries like advanced manufacturing will grow by nearly 6 percent annual before 2025, and 4.5 percent to the turn of the decade.

CEBR deputy chairman Douglas McWilliams told the BBC, “They seem to be trying to have centralised control at one level, but quite a free market economy in other areas. And it’s the free market bit that’s helping them move forward particularly in areas like tech.” However, because of its larger population, the average Chinese person will still be personally poorer financially than the average American.

The post-Brexit UK economy will grow by 4% annually from 2021-25 and 1.8% annually from 2026-30 (after shrinking in 2020). India had overtaken the UK as the fifth-biggest economy in 2019 but has slipped behind it again due to the pandemic’s impact. It won’t take over again until 2024, the CEBR says, before going on to overtake Germany in 2027 and Japan in 2030.

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