Tropical outlook for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Heavy rains expected this weekend

Posted: Friday, September 10, 2021. 12:33 pm CST.

By BBN Staff: The latest tropical outlook for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico produced by the United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows the possibility of disturbances to develop over the weekend along with heavy rains in some areas.

The NHC said that the northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea, and portions of the Yucatan peninsula. That system is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.

“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form Sunday or Monday before the system moves onshore along the western
Gulf of Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Central America through Saturday,” the NHC said. “Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.”

Weather experts also expect a strong tropical wave to emerge off of the west coast of Africa by tonight and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter. There is also the likelihood of a tropical depression forming late this weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. Those in the Cabo Verde Islands are urged to monitor the progress of this system.

“Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent,” the NHC noted.

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