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Tropical Storm Update: Hurricane Agatha in Pacific draws closer to Mexico; remnants may bring further rain to Belize

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Posted: Sunday, May 29, 2022. 9:47 pm CST.

By Aaron Humes: Southern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala and Belize are possibly in line for locally heavy rain as a result of an expected large, complex area of low pressure partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha in the Eastern Pacific.

The National Hurricane Center says about a 30 percent chance of development is expected, gradually, in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico by mid-week or in the northwest Caribbean by the latter part of the week as it drifts eastward to northeastward.

As of 9 p.m. this evening, Hurricane Agatha was centered about 140 miles southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico, with sustained winds of 110 miles per hour, moving northeast at six miles per hour. The minimum central pressure is 964 millibars or 28.47 inches.

Agatha’s current motion is expected to continue overnight into Monday, with landfall expected in southern Mexico by Monday afternoon or evening. Before then, it is forecast to strength to a category 3 or major hurricane on Monday and maintain that intensity through landfall, before rapidly weakening through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight or early Monday. Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday night, between 10 to 16 inches in Oaxaca, five to ten inches in Chiapas and two to six inches in Guerrero with isolated higher amounts possible, leading to flash flooding and mudslides. In Veracruz and Tabasco, an estimated two to four inches of rain with up to six inches in isolated areas is possible.

 

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