Tropical Weather update: Active weather system in the south Caribbean Sea has a 90 percent chance of formation in the next five days

Published by BBNTEAM at October 6, 2022

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Posted: Thursday, October 6, 2022. 7:09 am CST.

By Benjamin Flowers: The United States National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is cautioning those living in Central America to closely monitor a weather system in the South Caribbean Sea over the next few days.

NOAA’s latest Tropical Outlook, says the active weather system has an 80 percent chance of forming a storm within the next 48 hours and a 90 percent chance of formation within the next five days. The weather system is described as a broad and elongated area of low pressure located over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea just off the coast of Venezuela continues to produce an expansive area of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Windward Islands, northern South America, and adjacent waters.

“While land interaction with the northern coast of South America may hinder significant development during the next day or so, environmental conditions are expected to be most conducive for development while the system moves westward at about 15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two by the time it enters the south-central Caribbean Sea,” NOAA said.

The administration also said that the system is expected to strengthen while it moves westward over the southwestern Caribbean Sea toward Central America late Friday through Sunday and that, regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of Venezuela including Isla Margarita, the ABC Islands, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia during the next day or two.

The National Hurricane Center also issued advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Belize’s National Meteorological Service held a briefing with the press yesterday, where Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon stressed that there is a small chance the system could move more west-northwestward and impact Belize directly. Gordon said that thе еаrlіеѕt іt соuld rеасh thе аrеа іѕ оn Ѕundау, wіth thе іmрасt оf rаіn аnd ѕо оn ехресtеd ѕtаrtіng оn Моndау аnd Тuеѕdау, but іt іѕ ѕtіll ѕubјесt tо іntеnѕіfісаtіоn аnd ѕо іmрасtѕ соuld bе wоrѕе.

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