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Atlantic faces new weather threats: Disturbances near Bahamas and Caribbean monitored

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Posted: Sunday, October 29, 2023. 7:46 pm CST.

By Horace Palacio: A potential tropical depression or storm, potentially named Vince, may be forming near the Bahamas, with forecasters closely monitoring its progress. Another disturbance is also being tracked in the Caribbean by the National Hurricane Center. According to a report on Yahoo News, the system situated to the east of central Bahamas was anticipated to move in a west-northwest or northwest direction.

Aircraft investigations on Sunday revealed the system lacked a “well-defined surface circulation”. Consequently, by 2 p.m. Sunday, the odds of its development within the next 48 hours were lowered to 60% from an earlier estimate of 70%.

Forecasters have indicated that the chances of further development could be stymied on Tuesday due to prevailing dry air and potent upper-level winds. Concurrently, there’s a possibility of a low-pressure area forming either in the central or southwestern region of the Caribbean this week. This system has been given a 20% likelihood of progressing further over the next week, moving westward as per the latest advisories.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Tammy, which was actively being monitored, was demoted to a post-tropical cyclone status by Sunday. Positioned 610 miles east of Bermuda as of 5 a.m. Sunday, it is predicted to continue its weakening trend, eventually dissipating in the days ahead.

The Atlantic has witnessed an active hurricane season this year. Nineteen storms have been named so far, with seven escalating to hurricane status, including Tammy. Out of these, three intensified into major hurricanes, which are categorized as Category 3 or higher. These included Hurricane Lee, a seldom seen Category 5; Hurricane Franklin, a Category 4; and Hurricane Idalia, which struck Florida’s Big Bend area as a Category 3 on August 30.

For the 2023 season, only the names Vince and Whitney remain. Should these names be exhausted, the National Hurricane Center will resort to a supplemental list provided by the World Meteorological Association. This differs from the past practice of employing the Greek alphabet for overflow names, a scenario only witnessed in the remarkable hurricane seasons of 2005 and 2020.

The hurricane season is set to officially conclude on November 30.

 

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