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Emerging weather disturbances over Atlantic and Caribbean raise alert: What to know

Posted: Monday, October 30, 2023. 5:11 am CST.

By Horace Palacio: In recent meteorological observations, two areas of interest are being closely watched by weather experts over the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. A detailed report provided by the NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL as of 2:00 AM EDT on Monday, October 30, 2023, reveals specifics on these potential weather disturbances.

The first area, dubbed AL96, is situated several hundred miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas. Satellite imagery indicates the presence of gale-force winds on its northeastern side. However, associated showers and thunderstorms appear to be in disarray.

The system is advancing into an environment marked by strong upper-level winds and dry air. As a result, its likelihood of evolving into a short-lived tropical storm seems to be diminishing. Forecasters anticipate the low-pressure system to meander in a west-northwest direction today before adjusting to a more northward and northeastward trajectory on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The National Weather Service’s High Seas Forecasts provide further details, including any gale warnings associated with AL96. Current projections give it a 30 percent formation chance over both the next 48 hours and the coming week.

The second area of concern lies over the eastern Caribbean Sea. This emerging weather disturbance is predicted to drift westward in the days ahead. The prevailing environmental conditions suggest potential for its gradual maturation.

Experts are eyeing the possibility of it developing into a tropical depression by the end of the week, especially as it approaches the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Initial odds of its formation within the next 48 hours remain low, hovering near 0 percent. However, the likelihood increases to a moderate 40 percent over the subsequent week.

For mariners and coastal residents, it’s crucial to stay updated on these tropical developments. Comprehensive High Seas Forecasts, as issued by the National Weather Service, are available online and provide a thorough breakdown of conditions and warnings.

Forecaster Cangialosi from the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor these systems and advises residents and travelers in potentially affected areas to remain vigilant and stay tuned for further updates.


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