Posted: Sunday, September 8, 2024. 1:05 pm CST.
By Horace Palacio: This Sunday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring three areas of potential tropical development: two in the Central Tropical Atlantic and one in the Western Gulf of Mexico.
In the Western Gulf of Mexico, an elongated area of low pressure is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Winds on the system’s western side are currently between 40 to 45 mph, though the system does not yet have a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical storm is expected to form within the next day. The system is forecast to move northwestward and then northward near the Gulf coasts of Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana, with additional strengthening possible by midweek. Coastal areas in northeastern Mexico, southern Texas, and Louisiana are advised to keep a close watch on this system, with Tropical Storm Watches potentially issued later today. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. The NHC gives this system a high (90%) chance of developing in the next 48 hours.
Meanwhile, a low-pressure system in the central tropical Atlantic is showing signs of further organization. Conditions are favorable for its development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the coming days as the system drifts westward at about 10 mph. The NHC estimates a 60% chance of development within 48 hours and a 70% chance within the next 7 days.
In the Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic, a trough of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible later this week, with a tropical depression potentially forming by midweek as the system moves west-northwestward. This system has a low chance of formation within 48 hours but a 50% chance in the next 7 days.
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